News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures are trading 5 to 7 cents lower after a lower close on Friday. Some profit taking was being seen overnight ahead of the USDA monthly reports due at 11 am CDT this morning. The average trade guess for US corn ending stocks in the USDA WASDE report is 1.495 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey. That implies a cut in feed use, but USDA has not cut feed use in the March report in 18 years because they have better data if they wait for the March 31 Grains Stocks numbers. Preliminary OI was up 757 contracts on Friday, a little net new selling. There were 0 deliveries put out against the Mar 14 contract on Friday and the MTD total stands at 824 contracts. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money added 70,606 contracts to their net long position in corn last week, giving them a net long position of 158,122 contracts. They are buying against farmer selling.
Soybean futures are trading 3 to 9 cents lower after a moderately higher close on Friday Preliminary OI was down 4,602 contracts. There were 0 deliveries put out against the Mar 14 contract over the weekend. The oldest long is dated February 5. As of the close on this past Tuesday, CFTC shows managed money accounts increased their net long position for soybeans from the previous week by 5,497 contracts bringing their overall net long position to 208,493 contracts. A Bloomberg survey put trade estimates for the USDA report at 88.09 MMT for Brazil and 53.6 MMT. The average guess for the US ending stocks number is 144 million bushels in one survey, 141 million in another. Both are assuming a larger export estimate. The USDA report is due out at 11 am CDT.
Wheat futures are trading 3 cents lower to 10 cents higher this morning. Preliminary OI in CBOT Wheat was down 3,114 contracts. There were 26 deliveries put out against the Mar 14 CBOT wheat contract. ADM stopped all of them. As of the close last Tuesday, managed money accounts decreased their short position in CBT wheat from the previous week by 14,271 contracts bringing their overall net short position to only 6,040 contracts. The trade average-guess for US wheat ending stocks in the USDA report is 570 million bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey. The report is due out at 11 am CDT.
Cattle futures are called 10 to 25 cents lower. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts increasing their net long position in live cattle by 3,839 contracts last week bringing their overall net long position to 132,073 contracts. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday with choice cuts up $0.44 at $236.02 while select cuts were down $0.13 at $232.87. Select was up 5.5% for the week. The Choice/Select spread is at $3.16. Cash cattle trade ran $146-150 in the South, and $237-240 in the North last week, with Friday trades on the low end of those ranges. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 0.22 at $172.48.
Lean Hogs are called 15 to 30 cents higher this morning. The managed money accounts (per CFTC) increased their net long position by 4,136 contracts in the week ending March 4, bringing their total net long position to 69,642 contracts. The pork carcass cutout was up $1.85 at $111.99. Cash hog prices from the ECB were up $0.35 on Friday, while values from the WCB were up $1.67. IA/MN marketing areas were up $1.41. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.20 at $102.31.
Cotton futures are trading 7 to 13 points higher after closing lower on Friday. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts increasing their net long position by 1,135 contracts bringing their current overall net long position to 54,337 contracts. ICE Certified stocks were reported 258,139RB, with 96 new certs, 18 decerts and 2,215 bales awaiting review. USDA is expected to make only limited changes to the US cotton balance sheet in this morning’s reports.